Prepared by: Monitoring Unit - Horn of Africa Policy Center (HAPC) Date: February 24, 2026
Headline: Federal Decisions on Disputed Zones Ignite New Political Crisis Between Tigray and Amhara Regions:
ADDIS ABABA – A wave of sharp political reactions has swept Ethiopia following the National Election Board of Ethiopia’s (NEBE) announcement, backed by House of Federation decisions, regarding the restructuring of electoral constituencies in contested areas (specifically Welkait, Tselemti, and Raya). This move has placed the Pretoria Peace Agreement under its most significant strain since 2022.
- The Tigrayan Stance: “A Violation of the Constitutional Order”
Based on statements from the Tigray Democratic Solidarity (TDS) and Salsay Weyane Tigray, the regional political forces have condemned the move as a “political declaration of war.”
- Key Arguments: They argue the decisions violate Article 48 of the Ethiopian Constitution, which governs border disputes.
- The “Null and Void” Threat: Political parties in Tigray have declared the federal process “null and void,” warning that legitimizing what they describe as “ethnic cleansing” through administrative changes will force a withdrawal from the current political process.
- International Appeal: They are calling for urgent intervention from the African Union and the US to halt the federal government’s “unilateral” actions.
- The Amharic Stance: “Historical Redress and Identity”
On the other side, the Amhara political leadership and the administration of the contested zones view the federal decision as a step toward “historical justice.”
- Key Arguments: The Amharic side maintains that these areas were forcibly annexed by the TPLF in 1991 and that their current status reflects the “restoration of identity.”
- Demand for Referendum: They advocate for a referendum among the current residents, insisting that any return to Tigrayan administration is a “red line” that could trigger further instability.
- Security Concerns: Amhara activists emphasize that federal control over these zones is essential for regional security and preventing a return to the pre-war status quo.
- HAPC Monitoring Observation
The HAPC Monitoring Unit notes that the timing of these electoral decisions—occurring before the full return of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and the finalization of the boundary commission’s work—has created a dangerous trust vacuum. The rhetoric from both sides suggests a high risk of localized skirmishes if a neutral, consensus-based solution is not reached.
