By:"HAPC"
Introduction:
Tensions are running dangerously high among the Ethiopian federal government, the northern Tigray region, and neighboring Eritrea. This hostility threatens a return to deadly conflict just three years after the last war ended. The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a critical briefing on February 18, 2026, warning of a potential slide toward devastating hostilities.
2-Shifting Alliances and a Fragile Peace:
The 2020-2022 war ended with a victory for the Ethiopian and Eritrean coalition over Tigrayan forces. However, this alliance quickly disintegrated following the November 2022 peace deal.
The Red Sea Crisis: Relations soured when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced his intention to secure sovereign sea access.
Eritrean Fears: Asmara is deeply concerned that Ethiopia might attempt an invasion to secure a port.
New Partnerships: Addis Ababa now accuses leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of forging a clandestine alliance with their former enemy, Eritrea.
Internal Divisions Within Tigray
The Tigray region has been plunged into bitter factionalism.
The TPLF’s “old guard” strongly opposed the 2022 peace agreement.
They accused the interim administration under Getachew Reda of allying with Abiy Ahmed.
This led to an internal overthrow of Getachew’s administration in March 2025.
The Sudan War Spillover
The civil war in neighboring Sudan has heavily fueled regional tensions.
Ethiopia is close to the UAE, which backs the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.
Conversely, Eritrea sides with the Sudanese national army.
Eritrea has also built a relationship with Egypt, currently a major rival of Ethiopia due to Nile River disputes.
How to Prevent the Next War? (ICG Recommendations)
A new war would be devastating for the entire Horn of Africa. To prevent this, the report recommends urgent actions:
Influential African states (Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria) must engage in quiet diplomacy through the African Union.
1-International partners must establish back channels to address core grievances.
Neighbors should discuss Ethiopia’s legitimate commercial need for sea access peacefully, without compromising Eritrean sovereignty.
2-Major powers (U.S., EU, China, Saudi Arabia) should clearly state that any military action is unacceptable.
(The full, original PDF report by the International Crisis Group is attached as a primary source).
