The Hostility of the Eritrean Regime

The core of the escalated tension stems from the long-standing strategic doctrine pursued by the government in Asmara. The Eritrean regime, led by President Isaias Afwerki, has historically utilized Ethiopia as a perpetual threat to justify its highly centralized and repressive internal system. This narrative of a “looming aggressor” allows Asmara to maintain a permanent mobilization posture.

Recent actions by Eritrea highlight this aggressive stance and directly contribute to the risk of war:

• Peace Sabotage: Despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, Eritrean forces prolonged their occupation of parts of northern Tigray for months afterward. These clearance operations, viewed by Addis Ababa as an attempt to spoil the peace and maintain de facto control over key border areas, demonstrated a clear reluctance to fully normalize security.

• Alliance-Building: In direct response to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s strong rhetoric regarding maritime claims, Asmara has intensified its diplomatic and security posture by strengthening regional alliances, notably engaging with Egypt, which views the stability of the Red Sea as paramount. This posturing elevates the dispute from a bilateral issue to a potential regional proxy conflict.

• War Warnings: While Eritrea often conducts its strategy silently, official warnings from President Afwerki himself have threatened disastrous consequences and suggested that an attack on Eritrea would engulf the entire Horn of Africa in chaos.

Ethiopia’s increasingly assertive stance on securing a sovereign port, coupled with Eritrea’s strategy of justifying repression through external threat, has created a volatile security crisis that observers fear may soon transition from diplomatic stand-off to renewed large-scale military engagement.