Type: Policy Paper Review
Prepared by: Horn of Africa Policy Center
Source Paper: Joseph Eliot Magnet, “Eritrea in Transition: Role of the Diaspora,” Ottawa Faculty of Law Working Paper 2025-18

Introduction

This analytical review examines key arguments presented by Professor Joseph Eliot Magnet in his November 2025 working paper on Eritrea’s political future after President Isaias Afwerki. Magnet’s study provides a critical assessment of the country’s power structure, the prospects for political transition, the fragmented role of the Eritrean diaspora, and the structural limitations of the 1997 Constitution.
This review summarizes the core ideas of the paper and highlights their political relevance without reproducing the original text verbatim.

1. A State Without Institutions

Magnet argues that Eritrea functions less as an institutional state and more as a centralized authoritarian system dominated by a single ruler.
He notes the absence of an operational constitution, the dissolution of parliament, the lack of independent media, and the dominance of security agencies.
Within this framework, power relies on military loyalty, patronage networks, and coercive tools—making Eritrea a fragile and highly personalized political order.

2. An Inevitable but Risky Political Transition

According to Magnet, a post-Afwerki transition is inevitable, driven mainly by biological and generational factors.
However, the absence of functioning state institutions makes the transition excessively risky.
The study suggests that internal rivalries within the military and security services may shape the initial phase of succession.
Magnet remains skeptical of the emergence of a reformist faction from within the regime, arguing that any victorious group may simply reproduce an authoritarian model with minimal structural change.

3. The Eritrean Diaspora: Significant Resources, Limited Impact

The paper devotes considerable attention to the Eritrean diaspora, which has become demographically and economically significant due to decades of forced migration.
Magnet differentiates between:

• The “old diaspora” formed during the armed struggle

• The “new diaspora” that emerged after 2001 due to indefinite national service and repression

Despite its size and financial influence, the diaspora’s political impact remains limited.
Magnet attributes this to fragmentation along ethnic, linguistic, religious, and ideological lines.
The study also highlights the reluctance of some influential diaspora organizations—particularly those rooted in the highland Christian community—to endorse inclusive political arrangements that accommodate minority demands.

4. The 1997 Constitution: Structural Flaws and Minority Exclusion

Magnet cautions against calls to simply reinstate Eritrea’s 1997 Constitution during a transition.
He describes the document as overly centralized—“almost Stalinist” in structure—and insufficiently responsive to Eritrea’s ethnic and cultural diversity.
The constitution, he warns, provides inadequate safeguards for minority rights, particularly in areas such as land, language, and political representation.
Instead, he advocates for a new constitutional model based on power-sharing and pluralism.

5. Recommended Roadmap for the Diaspora

Magnet outlines three strategic priorities for diaspora actors:

1. Build Unified Political Platforms

Merging fragmented organizations into a coherent bloc with a shared vision for transition.

2. Use Diplomatic Influence Strategically

Leveraging international recognition to encourage institutional reforms in any post-Afwerki authority.

3. Draft a New Social Contract

Moving beyond the idea of a “homogeneous nation” and adopting an inclusive system that recognizes Eritrea’s diversity.

Conclusion

Professor Magnet’s work offers a comprehensive and sobering analysis of Eritrea’s post-Afwerki landscape.
The combination of weak institutions, internal military competition, and diaspora fragmentation presents serious risks.
At the same time, the study provides a roadmap for building an inclusive and stable political order based on constitutional renewal and broad-based participation.

Legal Notice

This review is an analytical interpretation of the original paper and falls under fair use for academic and research purposes.

Original Paper Information:

• Title: Eritrea in Transition: Role of the Diaspora

• Author: Prof. Joseph Eliot Magnet, University of Ottawa

• Writing Date: 10 November 2025

• Publication Date: 17 November 2025

• Series: Ottawa Faculty of Law Working Paper 2025-18

Keywords 
Eritrea political transition, Isaias Afwerki, Eritrean diaspora, 1997 Eritrean constitution, Joseph Magnet, post-Afwerki scenarios, Eritrean opposition, Horn of Africa politics, East Africa transitions, Eritrean military, governance in Eritrea, policy review, Eritrea future scenarios.

 source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5745002